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The laws of probability are mighty powerful, and they never sleep. If — Probability

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"The laws of probability are mighty powerful, and they never sleep. If this were more widely understood there’d be a lot less crowing about good luck, and a lot less guilt about bad luck. And we’d have a more civilized world. Some things really do happen by chance, and there is little we can do to change that."
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Probability concerns events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an event is to occur. This number is often expressed as a percentage (%), ranging from 0% to 100%. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes are both equ

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"Al right. I already see you turning off. I can see you say you dont understand me. You cant understand that it could be chance. "I dont like it!" Tough! I dont like it either, but thats the way it is! Ok? I dont understand it either. ..."It must be that Nature knows that its going to go up or down." No, it must not be that nature knows! We are not to tell Nature what shes gotta be! Thats what we found out. Every time we take a guess as how shes got to be, and go and measure... Shes clever. Shes always got better imagination than we have, and she finds a cleverer way to do it than we have thought of. And in this particular case, the clever way to do it is by probability, by odds. ...[L]ight works by probability."
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"My thesis, paradoxically, and a little provocatively, but nonetheless genuinely, is simply this :PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST.The abandonment of superstitious beliefs about the existence of Phlogiston, the Cosmic Ether, Absolute Space and Time, ... , or Fairies and Witches, was an essential step along the road to scientific thinking. Probability, too, if regarded as something endowed with some kind of objective existence, is no less a misleading misconception, an illusory attempt to exteriorize or materialize our true probabilistic beliefs."
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