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"All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020."
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Peter TurchinThe theory represents complex human societies as systems with three ma — Peter Turchin
"The theory represents complex human societies as systems with three main compartments (the general population, the elites, and the state) interacting with each other and with socio-political instability via a web of nonlinear feedbacks."
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Peter Turchin
Peter Turchin
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Peter Valentinovich Turchin is a Russian-American scientist who specializes in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called cliodynamics—mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies.
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"Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected... the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability."
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Peter TurchinQuote
"Ortmans et al. Turchin P. 2010 conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom."
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Peter TurchinQuote
"Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent—and predictable—waves of political instability..."
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Peter TurchinQuote
"How resilient are our societies to internal and external shocks?"
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Peter TurchinQuote
"So far so good. But the problem is, as in many dynamical systems, there are some delayed effects of such dynamics. ...Here are some numbers on the relative distribution of wealth in the American population. You have good data from 1983 to 2019... when we look at the percentage of households with [inflation adjusted in 1995 US dollars] net worth exceeding... Millionaires, roughly 10% of the population (7% now) increased from 3% to 7% but then growth in... classes such as decamillionaires was even more remarkable... more than fivefold, sixfold increase in the proportion of households that have 10 million dollars wealth, or more."
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Peter Turchin