Using data from other states and from Texas in years prior to the new — Texas Heartbeat Act

"Using data from other states and from Texas in years prior to the new law, they established a version of what birth trends in Texas would have probably looked like without the law and compared that with the actual number of births reported. They found that from April to December 2022, the first months that would have reflected the effects of the policy change, there were about 297,000 total births: about 3% more than the 287,000 births that would have been expected without the law. “Texas is really unique in that it is one of the states that had one of the higher abortion rates – and, because of the population size, a relatively large number of abortions,” said Suzanne Bell, an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University and co-author of the research. “At first blush, seeing the number was higher than I might have anticipated or hoped it might be.” But the 3% increase is relatively in line with what other research predicted might happen, she said. “There were still a lot of people who were going further afield for abortion care or who were self-managing their abortion,” said Bell, who studies patterns of contraceptive use and abortion. “But our results suggest that not everyone was able to overcome those barriers, and many were forced an unwanted or unsafe pregnancy to term.”"