Quote
"The best practical advice then is: try to maximize your expected payoff, which is the sum of all payoffs multiplied by probabilities."
H
Howard RaiffaHoward Raiffa
Howard Raiffa
Howard Raiffa was an American academic who was the Frank P. Ramsey Professor (Emeritus) of Managerial Economics, a joint chair held by the Business School and Harvard Kennedy School at Harvard University. He was an influential Bayesian decision theorist and pioneer in the field of decision analysis, with works in statistical decision theory, game theory, behavioral decision theory, risk analysis,
"The best practical advice then is: try to maximize your expected payoff, which is the sum of all payoffs multiplied by probabilities."
"The party that negotiates in haste is often at a disadvantage."
"Game theory, however, deals only with the way in which ultrasmart, all knowing people should behave in competitive situations, and has little to say to Mr. X as he confronts the morass of his problem."
"A mediator is an impartial outsider who tries to aid the negotiators in their quest to find a compromise agreement."
"There is no shortage of disputes."
"Its easy, of course, for two teams to collude, but somewhat more difficult for twenty-eight-"
"Disputants often fare poorly when they each act greedily and deceptively."
"Advice: dont embarrass your bargaining partner by forcing him or her to make all the concessions."
"A lot depends on the starting point."
"Most people, even in simple risky situations, dont behave the way the theory of utility would have them behave."
"Each party tended to view its own chances in court as better than the other side viewed them."
"After a little reflection, the best strategy becomes clear: bid aggressively up to a maximum cutoff value and then quit."