Many triggering events... are ultimately caused by pent-up social pres — Peter Turchin

"Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent—and predictable—waves of political instability..."

"All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020."

"Ortmans et al. Turchin P. 2010 conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom."

"Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected... the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability."

"How resilient are our societies to internal and external shocks?"

"The theory represents complex human societies as systems with three main compartments (the general population, the elites, and the state) interacting with each other and with socio-political instability via a web of nonlinear feedbacks."