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"Statistical criteria should (1) be sensitive to change in the specific factors tested, (2) be insensitive to changes, of a magnitude likely to occur in practice, in extraneous factors."
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George E. P. BoxRemember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wron — George E. P. Box
"Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful."
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George E. P. Box
George E. P. Box
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George Edward Pelham Box was a British statistician, who worked in the areas of quality control, time-series analysis, design of experiments, and Bayesian inference. He has been called "one of the great statistical minds of the 20th century". His quote "All models are wrong but some are useful" has been widely discussed.
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"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful."
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George E. P. BoxQuote
"Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a "correct" one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity."
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George E. P. BoxQuote
"We have a large reservoir of engineers (and scientists) with a vast background of engineering know how. They need to learn statistical methods that can tap into the knowledge. Statistics used as a catalyst to engineering creation will, I believe, always result in the fastest and most economical progress…"
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George E. P. BoxQuote
"One important idea is that science is a means whereby learning is achieved, not by mere theoretical speculation on the one hand, nor by the undirected accumulation of practical facts on the other, but rather by a motivated iteration between theory and practice."
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George E. P. BoxQuote
"All models are wrong; some models are useful."
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George E. P. Box