Quote
"At a very early stage in history we are encountering "survivorship bias" - the fact that only the best results tend to show up in the history books."
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William J. BernsteinWilliam J. Bernstein
William J. Bernstein
William J. Bernstein is an American financial theorist and neurologist. His research is in the field of modern portfolio theory and he has published books for individual investors who wish to manage their own equity portfolios, as well as history. He lives in Portland, Oregon. His bestselling books include The Birth of Plenty and A Splendid Exchange.
"At a very early stage in history we are encountering "survivorship bias" - the fact that only the best results tend to show up in the history books."
"And lest I offend art lovers, it should be pointed out that even an old master, bought from the the artist for $100 and sold 350 years later for $10,000,000, has returned only 3.34% per year."
"The real reason that physicians are rotten investors is that it never occurs to them that finance is a science, just like medicine."
"The worst possible time to invest is when the skies are the clearest."
"In fact, using entirely reasonable assumptions, you can make the Dows discounted market value almost anything you want it to be."
"In finance as in life, there is often a huge chasm between what is expected and what actually transpires."
"The rub here is that buying when prices are low is always a very scary proposition. The low prices that produce high future returns are not possible without catastrophe and risk."
"The Gordon Equation is as close as being a physical law, like gravitation or planetary motion, as we will ever encounter in finance."
"We tend to think of the stock and bond markets as relatively recent historical phenomena, but, in fact, there have been credit markets since human civilization first took root in the Fertile Crescent."
"It is one thing to coolly design a portfolio strategy on a sheet of paper or computer monitor, and quite another to actually deploy it."
"The brokerage and mutual fund business form a financial colossus that bestrides modern financial, and increasingly, social and political life."
"Value stock returns are impossible to estimate using the traditional methods, because most of the excessive return arises from the slow improvement in valuations that occurs as doggy stocks become less doggy over time."